It was a critical moment and the president was, for once, almost presidential, as in, radiating the air of someone in charge. You see, this is a major requirement of the times because fear expressed is fear enthroned. And fear is what fuels economic crisis. The world calls it being proactive. You hear a rumour, otherwise known as “market intelligence”, you spread it and many of those you tell work with it and it becomes self-fulfilling. Bank runs are known to have been the result of such scenarios...Fear is the most potent weapon of the enemy and that is what Mr President has wisely disallowed free rein in the matter of the economy. And that is what you and I must do. Now I do not know the root of his owns convictions, but I do know that, as Christians, our own lack of fear must be based on the word of God.
Now, you’ve heard it from the horse’s mouth. The President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Alhaji Umar Yar’Adua used the occasion of signing into law the 2009 Appropriation Bill, otherwise known as the Budget, to give a kind of state of the economy address.
He was forthright: “In December 2008, I presented a Budget Proposal with an aggregate expenditure of N2.87 trillion with a deficit of N1.09 trillion or 3.95 per cent of GDP. Based on the revised fiscal framework subsequently agreed with the National Assembly, we had a deficit of N654 billion or 2.36 per cent of GDP. After due consideration of the Budget Proposal, the National Assembly passed a N3.1018 trillion budget with a deficit of N836.6 billion or 3.02 per cent of GDP. As passed, the 2009 Budget projects higher oil revenues than in the original proposal. However, I must express some reservation regarding these higher forecasts given the current realities of declining international oil prices and production constraints. Due to militant activities in the Niger Delta, our production has sometimes declined to as low as 1.6mbpd from a projection of 2.209mbpd.”
He was as truthful: “Should this low production turn out to be our average for the year, and the average price falls to $40/barrel from the original budget projection of $45/barrel, our fiscal deficit would increase to N1.35 trillion or 5.24 per cent of GDP, which is well above the three per cent allowable limit under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Financing such a large fiscal deficit will have its own challenges…Our revenue base is dwindling with the drastic fall in the price of crude oil. As at today, the Naira has lost about 25 per cent of its value against the Dollar. Our stock market, once a choice investment destination, has not escaped the adverse effects of the economic downturn. These developments have grave implications for macro-economic stability, economic growth and sustainable development in our country."
But thanks to God, he didn’t exactly press the panic button: “For us, therefore, the present global economic crisis offers an opportunity to re-examine the structure of our economy and implement strategies that will reposition our nation for the global economic order that will emerge from the current experience. With our collective aspiration to make Nigeria one of the world's 20 leading economies by 2020, we see this global crisis as an obstacle we must overcome, and not a reason to abandon what we consider a worthwhile journey…As a government, we are committed to doing everything possible to minimise the impact of the current global crisis on the people of this country. Whatever the sacrifices that have to be made, we will not allow the weakest among us to shoulder the burden,”
Instead, he left no one in doubt that he intends to stay focused: “The 2009 budget is devoted to sectors which we consider critical to the regeneration of the economy. There is a decided bias for power supply, transportation and other critical infrastructure. There is also increased funding for education, health, agriculture and other areas critical to the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals. The peace, security and sustained development of the Niger Delta are also a core priority in the 2009 budget… The aim is to ensure effective and targeted implementation of critical projects, while at the same time instituting efficiency and accountability in the management of scarce public resources.”
It was a critical moment and the president was, for once, almost presidential, as in, radiating the air of someone in charge. You see, this is a major requirement of the times because fear expressed is fear enthroned. And fear is what fuels economic crisis. The world calls it being proactive. You hear a rumour, otherwise known as “market intelligence”, you spread it and many of those you tell work with it and it becomes self-fulfilling. Bank runs are known to have been the result of such scenarios. The news media unwittingly dig their own graves when they allow themselves to be used to work up such frenzies, because the first expenditure head that’s scalped is publicity and promotion. So advertising revenue slumps, panic sets in and the unemployment market begins to beckon to bright young men and women. Of course, their suppliers are soon affected; then the manufacturers from which supplies are sourced, followed by the producers of raw materials right down the line.
Fear is the most potent weapon of the enemy and that is what Mr President has wisely disallowed free rein in the matter of the economy. And that is what you and I must do. Now I do not know the root of his owns convictions, but I do know that, as Christians, our own lack of fear must be based on the word of God.
A scriptural passage, as popular as Psalm 23, is enough to guide the true Bible- believing child of God through all the seasons of life. Just think about it: “Jehovah is my Shepherd; I shall not want, He makes me to lie down in green pastures; He leads me beside the still waters. He restores my soul; He leads me in paths of righteousness for His name's sake (verses 1-3). Is God really your shepherd? If He is, you cannot lack anything good. He is your source, sustainer and sustenance. He’ll provide (verse 1) for you body and soul (verse 2) and spirit (verse 3). That is total provision, after all, isn’t that all that you are - a spirit who has a soul and lives in a body!
That is why we, like the psalmist, must never be part of any panic parade. That is why we must be bold enough to declare: “Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil; for You are with me; Your rod and Your staff, they comfort me” (verse 4). In other words, no matter where I am, no matter what the circumstances portend, I have no expectation of evil; I have no expectation that things will turn negative for me! So, no Murphy’s Law for me (remember him?), the one who says if anything can go wrong, it will?). Everything has to work together for my good (see Romans 8:28).
This famous psalm continues: “You prepare a table for me in the presence of my enemies; You anoint my head with oil; my cup runs over” (verse 5). Now that excites me no end, particularly since my dear Rev Bayo Oniwinde (the bishop!) redirected attention to it at a recent service. Do you get the import of this verse? It says in the midst of the so-called recession, in the presence of the enemy’s tool known as economic melt-down, your barn is full, your silos are overflowing, your bank accounts are bursting at the seams. You are anointed to prosper and to abound to every good work, all good works! That is the word of God and His word is His will and His will shall be done here on earth as it is done in heaven.
Then it climaxes: “Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life; and I shall dwell in the house of Jehovah forever”. Now, you say that everyday, don’t you? But no, don’t rush through it this time. Think about it. Goodness, like love and grace, is a core attribute of God; it is one of the reasons He does what He does! So is His mercy. These are not put-ons available occasionally. They are what He is and they are the reasons He’s going to bless you in spite of what the economic indices are saying.
Now, I know most of us are intellectuals, we have developed our intellect to the fullest and, if we are not already attending seminars about how to survive the recession, we probably are preparing to attend one. But I assure you NONE of those will benefit you. We said it last week; the wisdom of man has failed and will continue to fail, even if for the simple reason that we do not control events by the power of our intellects! And what applies to us individually applies to the nation.
Senate President David Mark told journalists in answer to a question about the crude oil price benchmark used in calculating the budget: “Really who can see the future? If we all can, we will be more than happy. But because we didn’t foresee these and they have come now, who knows what the dollar is going to be against the naira tomorrow, do you know? Nobody! We can’t really predict that. There is no accurate or specific way of doing it.”
He is right and wrong! How so? Please join me next week..
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